Stanley Cup odds: Who helped or hurt their chances this season?

A lot has happened since Avalanche Lift the Stanley Cup on June 26. 352 contracts were signed in NHLand 25 deals – excluding the draw-day pick swaps – with many of them reshaping the landscape for the 2022-23 season.

Heart cup filter Johnny Goudreu Shocked the world of hockey by logging in Columbuswhich started a chain reaction that landed Matthew Tkachuk in Florida and Jonathan Huberdeau – who finished right behind Goudreau for Hart – in Calgary. Changing the goal seats Like a game of musical chairsAnd nearly a third of the league has a new coach heading into this season. There are still some changes to come (cough, cough… Nazim Kadri and John Kleinberg) but the dust has mostly settled over the NHL offseason which has been more brutal than most.

Now that we have a better picture of how each team will look at next season, it’s time to ask: Which teams have improved or hurt their championship ambitions this summer? To estimate this, we compared each team’s Stanley Cup odds, courtesy of Bet MGM, from June 26 to now. Obviously this isn’t a perfect representation of the teams that have gotten better or worse, but it’s a glimpse into how the odds makers and the public see each club’s off-season maneuvers.

Since every dollar on the money line is not equal, we’ll use “implied odds” for each team, converting their odds into a percentage. For example, the Colorado Avalanche has the best odds of winning the 2022-23 Cup at +425, which translates to a 19.5 percent chance. Meanwhile, the Black Hawks It has the worst odds at +50,000, which translates to a 0.2% chance.

Using this method counts the movement of the largest streak by teams with long odds. A team like Columbus going from +10,000 to +8,000 is a 1,000-point shift in odds, but in reality, it only improves the cup winning percentage from 0.99 to 1.23 percent. Meanwhile, Colorado improved from +450 to +425. That’s just a 25-point shift on odds, but the implied percentage of winning the trophy in the avalanche went from 18.18 to 19.05 percent — a much bigger increase than Columbus’s.

Over the past month, there have been nine teams that have improved their odds, 11 of them have their odds and 12 teams that have seen their odds stay exactly the same. The full chart is below. First, we’ll examine the top five at each end of the spectrum, starting with those whose odds have improved the most.

1. Florida Panthers

Odds of June 26: +1000 (9.09%)
Current odds: +900 (10.00%)
Change percentage: 0.91%

Notable movements are likely to affect the betting market more than they should, and this could be a great example. The Panthers are in off-season with the fourth-best odds of winning next year’s Cup, and they’ve done more to improve their chances than any other team in the NHL according to odds.

It’s a bit strange to see Florida at the top of this list given that they lost their Huberdow scorer and several key pieces in the attackers. Claude Giroud And the Mason’s careerand defensemen Mackenzie and jealous And the Ben Shearot this summer. Obviously, the Panthers have added another star in Tkachuk, as well as some depth ahead Nick Cousins And the Colin Whitebut to say they had the best of the season is a stretch.

Nothing fuels future bets in summer more than a trendy acquisition, and the Tkachuk is just that.

2. Colorado Avalanche

Odds of June 26: +450 (18.18%)
Current odds: +425 (19.05%)
Change percentage: 0.87%

The improvement in Colorado’s odds this summer was not due to actual improvements in the roster. Colorado weaker in goal and lost Darcy Comber to me Washington Soon he will be replaced Alexander Georgiev. The attackers also lost Nicholas Ob-Kobel And the Andrei Burakovsky For free agency, my destiny can lose.

There is an opportunity for bookmakers to count on the young Colorado stars taking their game to another level, but this change in odds is likely due to the lack of improvement from the teams around the avalanche. The first three teams entering the holiday season have improved their odds despite making few or no promotions. This indicates that no team without them has made enough improvements to catch them, causing further market refinement on preferred products.

3. Ottawa Senators

Odds of June 26: +8000 (1.23%)
Current odds: +5,000 (1.96%)
Change percentage: 0.73%

What a summer for senators. General Manager Pierre Dorion added influential players in Alex DeBrinkat and Giroux, potentially improving its target with a cheaper starter option. The DeBrincat deal alone would have made that off-season win for the Senators, adding that the 24-year-old is coming off an impressive 41-goal season for a few recruiting selections. Signing a veteran in your hometown of Giroux could be an excellent free agency move, and a trade off Matt Murray for Cam Talbot In the net should improve Ottawa’s goal. Talbot has outpaced Murray in each of the past three years in above-average savings and saved goals, but will only make $3.6 million.

These moves led to a 0.73 percent swing in Ottawa’s odds, improving from 80 to 1 to win everything to 50 to 1. The senators are clearly still tall, but now have the fifth best odds of winning the Atlantic Division despite finishing above only. Montreal In 2021-22.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs

Odds of June 26: +850 (10.53%)
Current odds: +800 (11.11%)
Change percentage: 0.58%

Toronto has had a busy business, losing several contributors from the bottom of the squad last year while adding two new guards and some new depth pieces through free agency. Perhaps this shift in odds is due to confidence that Matt Murray will return to his level in 2016, or perhaps bettors like under-the-radar foliage moves like the signature Aube-Kubel and Cali Jarnrock. Either way, Toronto remains among the favorites to enter next season.

5. New York Rangers

Odds of June 26: +2,000 (4.76%)
Current odds: +1,800 (5.26%)
Change percentage: 0.50%

Rangers lost attackers Ryan Strom And the Andrew Cope Via free agency, but exchanged for trading for Vincent Trochek from Carolina. He will be reunited with Gerard Gallant, whom he coached in several of the best offensive seasons of his career in Florida.

The public’s betting support for the Rangers will likely have more to do with their developing young talent rather than actual off-season acquisitions. Watch Adam FoxAnd the Philip ShettleAnd the Alexis LavrinierAnd the Kandrey MillerAnd the kabu kaku And the Ryan Lindgren (All under 24) Playing as they did in Postseason paints a bright future in New York.


Vincent Trochek. (Danny Wild/USA Today)

Now for the five teams hurt by their odds of winning the 2022-23 Cup this summer:

1. Calgary Flames

Odds of June 26: +1,800 (5.26%)
Current odds: +2,200 (4.35%)
Change percentage: -0.91%

General Manager Brad Trilleving has done a fantastic job of securing a comeback for Tkachuk, considering the circumstances, but it is undeniable that the Flames are in worse shape after losing two top scorers a year ago.

Tkachuk and Gudru scored 82 goals in 2021-22, more than 28 percent of the team’s total. Even after they acquired Huberdeau and Weegar, it is easy to see why the Flames betting market is down.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

Odds of June 26: +900 (10.00%)
Current odds: +1,000 (9.09%)
Change percentage: -0.91%

The Lightning team is still expected to compete for another trophy, but their salary cap issues are slowly fading into their stacked roster. GM Julian Presboa did a good job in confinement Mikhail SergechevAnd the Anthony Cirelli And the Eric Cernack for long-term deals, but they lost a cornerstone in the locker room in order to do so. with Ryan McDonagh And the Ondrej Balat They both walk out the door, Tampa Bay has questions to answer.

Even with its 0.91 percent downturn, Lightning still has the fourth-best odds of winning it all in 2022-23.

3. Philadelphia Flyers

Odds of June 26: +6,600 (1.49%)
Current odds: +15,000 (0.66%)
Change percentage: -0.91%

Entering the holiday season, the Flyers were close to the middle of the group in terms of the odds of winning the 2022-23 Cup (ranked 23 in the league at 66 to 1). After trading against Tony D’AngeloBy turning him into a $10 million contract and losing his hometown champion (Gaudreau), the Flyers’ odds plummeted to number six in the NHL.

4. Chicago Blackhawks

Odds of June 26: +10,000 (0.99%)
Current odds: +50,000 (0.20%)
Change percentage: -0.79%

The Blackhawks entered offset season as a 100 to 1 long shot and still managed to get clearly worse. The list of players lost by Chicago goes on and on. DeBrincat and Kirby Dash They are the two big ones, but the Black Hawks also said goodbye to deep attackers Dylan Strom And the Dominic Kobalicand defenseman Calvin de Haan.

A month ago, Blackhaws had the fourth worst odds. Now they are related to coyote The NHL worst-case scenario is at 500 to 1.

5. St. Louis Blues

Odds of June 26: +2,200 (4.35%)
Current odds: +2,500 (3.85%)
Change percentage: -0.50%

It was a quiet time in St. Louis. Watch the Blues one of the best scorers (David Peron(and the No. 1 goalkeeper for most of last season)Phil HosoThey went out the door, but didn’t add much to take their place. It’s easy to see why the Blues’ odds have been dropping over the past month, especially now that they’ve been knocked out of the Tkachuk sweepstakes.

Here’s how the odds for each team in the league have changed over the past month:

Team

6/26

Stream

they change

9.09%

10.00%

0.91%

18.18%

19.05%

0.87%

1.23%

1.96%

0.73%

10.53%

11.11%

0.58%

New York Rangers

4.76%

5.26%

0.50%

1.96%

2.44%

0.48%

2.44%

2.78%

0.34%

1.23%

1.49%

0.26%

0.99%

1.23%

0.24%

7.69%

7.69%

0%

6.67%

6.67%

0%

5.88%

5.88%

0%

5.26%

5.26%

0%

4.76%

4.76%

0%

New York Islanders

3.23%

3.23%

0%

2.78%

2.78%

0%

2.44%

2.44%

0%

1.96%

1.96%

0%

1.96%

1.96%

0%

0.66%

0.66%

0%

0.20%

0.20%

0%

0.79%

0.66%

-0.13%

1.23%

0.99%

-0.24%

1.49%

1.23%

-0.26%

1.49%

1.23%

-0.26%

0.99%

0.66%

-0.33%

3.85%

3.45%

-0.40%

4.35%

3.85%

-0.50%

0.99%

0.20%

-0.79%

1.49%

0.66%

-0.83%

10.00%

9.09%

-0.91%

5.26%

4.35%

-0.91%

(Top photo by Austin Matthews, Morgan Riley And the Mitch Marner: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

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